V-Lab
Chilean Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
8.38%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
8.47%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
8.76%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7190 | 6.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 7.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8797 | 56.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0260 | 0.44 |
| γ2 | 0.0244 | 0.25 |
| γ3 | -0.1585 | -2.42** |
| γ4 | 0.2136 | 4.47*** |
| γ5 | -0.1943 | -4.76*** |
| γ6 | 0.1353 | 4.18*** |
| γ7 | -0.0418 | -1.05 |
| γ8 | 0.0047 | 0.13 |
| γ9 | -0.0416 | -1.49 |
| γ10 | 0.0264 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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