V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
3.76%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
3.76%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
3.79%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9172 | 3.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1141 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8675 | 62.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0694 | -1.07 |
| γ2 | 0.1259 | 1.17 |
| γ3 | -0.0520 | -0.43 |
| γ4 | -0.0647 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | 0.1577 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | -0.1898 | -2.51** |
| γ7 | 0.2071 | 2.45** |
| γ8 | -0.2182 | -2.13** |
| γ9 | 0.1782 | 1.74* |
| γ10 | -0.2095 | -1.79* |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9172 | 3.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8675 | 62.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0694 | -1.07 |
| γ2 | 0.1259 | 1.17 |
| γ3 | -0.0520 | -0.43 |
| γ4 | -0.0647 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | 0.1577 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | -0.1898 | -2.51** |
| γ7 | 0.2071 | 2.45** |
| γ8 | -0.2182 | -2.13** |
| γ9 | 0.1782 | 1.74* |
| γ10 | -0.2095 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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