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V-Lab
V-Lab

Indonesian Rupiah Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

3.76%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

3.76%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

3.79%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indonesian Rupiah SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9172
3.94***
αARCH0.1141
8.72***
βGARCH0.8675
62.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0694
-1.07
γ20.1259
1.17
γ3-0.0520
-0.43
γ4-0.0647
-0.52
γ50.1577
1.74*
γ6-0.1898
-2.51**
γ70.2071
2.45**
γ8-0.2182
-2.13**
γ90.1782
1.74*
γ10-0.2095
-1.79*

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9172
3.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1141
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8675
62.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0694
-1.07
γ20.1259
1.17
γ3-0.0520
-0.43
γ4-0.0647
-0.52
γ50.1577
1.74*
γ6-0.1898
-2.51**
γ70.2071
2.45**
γ8-0.2182
-2.13**
γ90.1782
1.74*
γ10-0.2095
-1.79*

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days