Pakistani Rupee Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.68%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
4.74%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
4.95%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8689 | 1.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2115 | 10.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7808 | 46.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2430 | -5.91*** |
| γ2 | 0.2417 | 3.16*** |
| γ3 | 0.1078 | 1.50 |
| γ4 | -0.1881 | -3.59*** |
| γ5 | 0.0756 | 1.30 |
| γ6 | 0.1681 | 2.57** |
| γ7 | -0.3806 | -4.71*** |
| γ8 | 0.3654 | 3.38*** |
| γ9 | -0.3220 | -3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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