V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.30%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
2.44%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.91%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8394 | 1.46 |
| αARCH | 0.2049 | 10.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7887 | 46.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2574 | -7.78*** |
| γ2 | 0.3273 | 5.45*** |
| γ3 | -0.0313 | -0.46 |
| γ4 | -0.1504 | -2.35** |
| γ5 | 0.3024 | 4.78*** |
| γ6 | -0.3406 | -4.08*** |
| γ7 | 0.2106 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -0.1749 | -2.52** |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8394 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2049 | 10.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7887 | 46.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2574 | -7.78*** |
| γ2 | 0.3273 | 5.45*** |
| γ3 | -0.0313 | -0.46 |
| γ4 | -0.1504 | -2.35** |
| γ5 | 0.3024 | 4.78*** |
| γ6 | -0.3406 | -4.08*** |
| γ7 | 0.2106 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -0.1749 | -2.52** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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