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V-Lab

Hungarian Forint Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

9.52%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

9.51%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

9.47%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3754
3.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0312
6.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9577
136.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0667
3.38***
γ2-0.1050
-3.72***
γ30.0698
3.91***
γ4-0.0699
-4.31***
γ50.0671
3.91***
γ6-0.0317
-1.97**
γ7-0.0102
-0.38

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days