Hungarian Forint Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.52%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
9.51%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
9.47%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3754 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0312 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9577 | 136.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0667 | 3.38*** |
| γ2 | -0.1050 | -3.72*** |
| γ3 | 0.0698 | 3.91*** |
| γ4 | -0.0699 | -4.31*** |
| γ5 | 0.0671 | 3.91*** |
| γ6 | -0.0317 | -1.97** |
| γ7 | -0.0102 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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