South Korean Won Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.00%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
10.03%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
10.15%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0585 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9299 | 129.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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