South Korean Won Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
9.11%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
9.17%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
9.40%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 58 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0543 | 6.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.0584 | 7.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9298 | 129.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 3.10*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0543 | 6.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9298 | 129.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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