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Ethereum to US Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

40.04%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Week

40.71%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

41.77%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 06:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/10/2024

to

10/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ethereum to US Dollar SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4554
7.76***
αARCH0.0925
4.19***
βGARCH0.7516
13.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.1212
2.10**
γ2-0.2527
-2.98***
γ30.2981
5.09***
γ4-0.3609
-3.25***

0.844

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4554
7.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0925
4.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7516
13.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.1212
2.10**
γ2-0.2527
-2.98***
γ30.2981
5.09***
γ4-0.3609
-3.25***

Persistence:

0.844

Half-life:

4 days