Ethereum to US Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
40.04%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
40.71%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
41.77%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 06:10 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4554 | 7.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 4.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7516 | 13.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1212 | 2.10** |
| γ2 | -0.2527 | -2.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.2981 | 5.09*** |
| γ4 | -0.3609 | -3.25*** |
0.844
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4554 | 7.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 4.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7516 | 13.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1212 | 2.10** |
| γ2 | -0.2527 | -2.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.2981 | 5.09*** |
| γ4 | -0.3609 | -3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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