Ethereum to US Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
32.14%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
33.04%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
34.60%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3623 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 4.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7696 | 16.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0699 | 0.65 |
| γ2 | -0.0743 | -0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.1217 | -1.16 |
| γ4 | 0.4202 | 4.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.7643 | -4.88*** |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
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