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V-Lab

Ethereum to US Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

48.75%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

53.03%

increased by 3.41%

1 Month

61.32%

increased by 11.70%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ethereum to US Dollar AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.18) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7323
19.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1221
24.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7776
135.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.1754
8.25***

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days