Ethereum to US Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
48.75%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
53.03%
increased by 3.41%
1 Month
61.32%
increased by 11.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.18) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7323 | 19.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1221 | 24.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7776 | 135.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.1754 | 8.25*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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