V-Lab
Euro AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
4.11%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.15%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.29%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~233 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0296 | 10.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9675 | 344.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0497 | 1.22 |
0.997
Persistence233d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 10.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9675 | 344.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0497 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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