V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
3.08%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
3.15%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
3.44%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0011 | 4.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0899 | 9.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9056 | 100.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0105 | 0.52 |
0.996
Persistence155d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 9.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 100.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0105 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
155 days
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