Canadian Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
3.96%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
3.98%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
4.06%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 daysAsymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.0299 | 7.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9661 | 230.35*** |
| γleverage | -0.0688 | -2.38** |
0.996
Persistence170d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0299 | 7.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9661 | 230.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0688 | -2.38** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
170 days
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