Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Canadian Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

3.96%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

3.98%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

4.06%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Canadian Dollar AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 daysAsymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0004
2.10**
αARCH0.0299
7.71***
βGARCH0.9661
230.35***
γleverage-0.0688
-2.38**

0.996

Persistence

170d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0004
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0299
7.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9661
230.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0688
-2.38**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days