V-Lab
British Pound AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
5.03%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
5.07%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
5.21%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0011 | 2.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 6.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9638 | 190.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0745 | 1.54 |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9638 | 190.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0745 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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