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V-Lab

British Pound AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

5.03%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

5.07%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

5.21%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

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graph of British Pound AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0011
2.92***
αARCH0.0305
6.37***
βGARCH0.9638
190.51***
γleverage0.0745
1.54

0.994

Persistence

121d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
2.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0305
6.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9638
190.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0745
1.54

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

121 days