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V-Lab

British Pound AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

5.28%

increased by 0.54%

1 Week

5.31%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

5.43%

increased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
2.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0305
6.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9638
190.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0744
1.54

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

120 days