V-Lab
British Pound AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
5.28%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
5.31%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
5.43%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9638 | 190.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0744 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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