V-Lab
British Pound GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
6.00%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
6.02%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.11%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 313 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3835 | 6.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 80.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 2,859.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7857 | 91.32*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
313 days
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