Argentine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
9.09%
1 Week
9.11%
1 Month
9.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.2198 | 1.70* |
| αscore | 0.0824 | 34.50*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 1,722.41*** |
| νDF | 2.2564 | 354.72*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.2198 | 1.70* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0824 | 34.50*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,722.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2564 | 354.72*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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