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Argentine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

9.09%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

9.11%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

9.21%

decreased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Argentine Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2002 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.2198
1.70*
αscore0.0824
34.50***
βpersistence0.9990
1,722.41***
νDF2.2564
354.72***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.2198
1.70*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0824
34.50***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,722.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2564
354.72***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days