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V-Lab

Argentine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.36%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

5.85%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

7.82%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Argentine Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.2026
4.45***
βGARCH0.8170
45.50***
γleverage-0.0492
-0.72
λ₁tau intercept0.0005
0.65
λ₂forecast adj.0.0752
1.32
λ₃tau persistence0.9248
16.04***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2026
4.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8170
45.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0492
-0.72
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0005
0.65
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0752
1.32
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9248
16.04***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days