Argentine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
5.38%
1 Week
5.86%
1 Month
7.82%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.2020 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8172 | 45.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.0484 | -0.71 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0005 | 0.65 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0744 | 1.33 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9256 | 16.33*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2020 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8172 | 45.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0484 | -0.71 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0744 | 1.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9256 | 16.33*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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