Argentine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.36%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
5.85%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
7.82%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.2026 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8170 | 45.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0492 | -0.72 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0005 | 0.65 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0752 | 1.32 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9248 | 16.04*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2026 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8170 | 45.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0492 | -0.72 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0752 | 1.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9248 | 16.04*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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