V-Lab
Argentine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.57%
increased by 1.64%
1 Week
12.05%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
13.61%
increased by 3.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9928 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1891 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7916 | 40.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1198 | -2.01** |
| γ2 | 0.2151 | 2.41** |
| γ3 | -0.1418 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 0.0905 | 1.49 |
| γ5 | 0.0715 | 1.34 |
| γ6 | -0.2998 | -4.62*** |
| γ7 | 0.2308 | 2.16** |
| γ8 | 0.0237 | 0.22 |
| γ9 | -0.1252 | -1.81* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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