Argentine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.23%
increased by 1.60%
1 Week
11.06%
increased by 2.43%
1 Month
13.59%
increased by 4.96%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0066 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1915 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7896 | 40.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1255 | -2.11** |
| γ2 | 0.2224 | 2.49** |
| γ3 | -0.1416 | -2.30** |
| γ4 | 0.0852 | 1.41 |
| γ5 | 0.0776 | 1.47 |
| γ6 | -0.2957 | -4.24*** |
| γ7 | 0.2084 | 1.87* |
| γ8 | 0.0551 | 0.50 |
| γ9 | -0.1474 | -2.13** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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