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V-Lab

Argentine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.23%

increased by 1.60%

1 Week

11.06%

increased by 2.43%

1 Month

13.59%

increased by 4.96%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Argentine Peso S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0066
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1915
8.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7896
40.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1255
-2.11**
γ20.2224
2.49**
γ3-0.1416
-2.30**
γ40.0852
1.41
γ50.0776
1.47
γ6-0.2957
-4.24***
γ70.2084
1.87*
γ80.0551
0.50
γ9-0.1474
-2.13**

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days