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V-Lab

Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

9.03%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

9.31%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

10.25%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0901
3.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0861
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8989
115.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0101
0.68
γ2-0.0180
-0.86
γ30.0257
2.30**
γ4-0.0349
-3.30***
γ50.0217
2.41**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days