V-Lab
Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
8.15%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
8.46%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
9.49%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0923 | 3.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0857 | 11.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8994 | 115.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0100 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | -0.0178 | -0.85 |
| γ3 | 0.0257 | 2.30** |
| γ4 | -0.0354 | -3.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.0226 | 2.57** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0923 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 11.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8994 | 115.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0100 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | -0.0178 | -0.85 |
| γ3 | 0.0257 | 2.30** |
| γ4 | -0.0354 | -3.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.0226 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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