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V-Lab

Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

8.60%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

8.91%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

9.94%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0954
3.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0862
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8987
114.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0106
0.71
γ2-0.0187
-0.89
γ30.0261
2.33**
γ4-0.0349
-3.27***
γ50.0215
2.37**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days