V-Lab
Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.60%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
8.91%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
9.94%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0954 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 114.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0106 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.0187 | -0.89 |
| γ3 | 0.0261 | 2.33** |
| γ4 | -0.0349 | -3.27*** |
| γ5 | 0.0215 | 2.37** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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