V-Lab
Russian Ruble Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
11.34%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
11.83%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
13.35%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9561 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1031 | 9.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8725 | 74.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1044 | -1.12 |
| γ2 | 0.2347 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | -0.1712 | -2.52** |
| γ4 | -0.0240 | -0.63 |
| γ5 | 0.1749 | 5.20*** |
| γ6 | -0.2038 | -5.45*** |
| γ7 | 0.1422 | 2.86*** |
| γ8 | -0.0487 | -0.92 |
| γ9 | -0.0140 | -0.41 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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