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V-Lab

Russian Ruble Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

11.34%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

11.83%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

13.35%

increased by 1.63%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russian Ruble S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9561
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1031
9.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8725
74.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1044
-1.12
γ20.2347
1.68*
γ3-0.1712
-2.52**
γ4-0.0240
-0.63
γ50.1749
5.20***
γ6-0.2038
-5.45***
γ70.1422
2.86***
γ8-0.0487
-0.92
γ9-0.0140
-0.41

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days