V-Lab
Russian Ruble Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.05%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
15.29%
increased by 1.26%
1 Month
16.05%
increased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9584 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 9.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8730 | 74.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1031 | -1.11 |
| γ2 | 0.2329 | 1.67* |
| γ3 | -0.1720 | -2.54** |
| γ4 | -0.0207 | -0.54 |
| γ5 | 0.1710 | 5.16*** |
| γ6 | -0.2015 | -5.54*** |
| γ7 | 0.1429 | 2.95*** |
| γ8 | -0.0511 | -0.98 |
| γ9 | -0.0126 | -0.37 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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