V-Lab
Colombian Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.11%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
12.33%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
12.98%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5065 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 10.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8452 | 57.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0590 | 1.22 |
| γ2 | -0.0562 | -0.84 |
| γ3 | -0.1055 | -2.87*** |
| γ4 | 0.2462 | 8.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.2987 | -10.10*** |
| γ6 | 0.2820 | 7.87*** |
| γ7 | -0.1664 | -4.45*** |
| γ8 | 0.0405 | 1.26 |
| γ9 | -0.0134 | -0.51 |
| γ10 | 0.0170 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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