V-Lab
Colombian Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.82%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
13.02%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
13.63%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4853 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1079 | 10.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 63.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0469 | 0.88 |
| γ2 | -0.0410 | -0.56 |
| γ3 | -0.1098 | -2.84*** |
| γ4 | 0.2487 | 8.58*** |
| γ5 | -0.3022 | -10.05*** |
| γ6 | 0.2882 | 7.81*** |
| γ7 | -0.1747 | -4.52*** |
| γ8 | 0.0458 | 1.36 |
| γ9 | -0.0125 | -0.45 |
| γ10 | 0.0135 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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