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V-Lab

Colombian Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

12.82%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

13.02%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

13.63%

increased by 1.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4853
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1079
10.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8546
63.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0469
0.88
γ2-0.0410
-0.56
γ3-0.1098
-2.84***
γ40.2487
8.58***
γ5-0.3022
-10.05***
γ60.2882
7.81***
γ7-0.1747
-4.52***
γ80.0458
1.36
γ9-0.0125
-0.45
γ100.0135
0.71

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days