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V-Lab

Colombian Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12.11%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

12.33%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

12.98%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5065
3.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1102
10.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8452
57.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0590
1.22
γ2-0.0562
-0.84
γ3-0.1055
-2.87***
γ40.2462
8.73***
γ5-0.2987
-10.10***
γ60.2820
7.87***
γ7-0.1664
-4.45***
γ80.0405
1.26
γ9-0.0134
-0.51
γ100.0170
0.96

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days