V-Lab
Colombian Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.62%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Week
19.27%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Month
18.16%
decreased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4895 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 10.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8444 | 57.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0536 | 1.09 |
| γ2 | -0.0502 | -0.74 |
| γ3 | -0.1052 | -2.85*** |
| γ4 | 0.2443 | 8.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.2977 | -10.27*** |
| γ6 | 0.2839 | 8.08*** |
| γ7 | -0.1713 | -4.65*** |
| γ8 | 0.0443 | 1.38 |
| γ9 | -0.0128 | -0.49 |
| γ10 | 0.0141 | 0.79 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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