V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
44.30%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
46.36%
increased by 1.18%
1 Month
49.52%
increased by 4.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2875 | 5.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0870 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7555 | 13.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0281 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.1223 | 0.33 |
| γ3 | -0.1490 | -0.58 |
| γ4 | -0.1789 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 0.7233 | 3.92*** |
| γ6 | -0.8370 | -4.66*** |
| γ7 | 0.4487 | 3.19*** |
0.842
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2875 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0870 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7555 | 13.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0281 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.1223 | 0.33 |
| γ3 | -0.1490 | -0.58 |
| γ4 | -0.1789 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 0.7233 | 3.92*** |
| γ6 | -0.8370 | -4.66*** |
| γ7 | 0.4487 | 3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.842
Half-life:
4 days
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