V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
46.66%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
48.43%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
51.17%
increased by 3.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Sep 5, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2862 | 5.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0872 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7566 | 13.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0269 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.1178 | 0.31 |
| γ3 | -0.1348 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | -0.2066 | -0.98 |
| γ5 | 0.7453 | 4.06*** |
| γ6 | -0.8254 | -4.62*** |
| γ7 | 0.4187 | 3.01*** |
0.844
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2862 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0872 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7566 | 13.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0269 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.1178 | 0.31 |
| γ3 | -0.1348 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | -0.2066 | -0.98 |
| γ5 | 0.7453 | 4.06*** |
| γ6 | -0.8254 | -4.62*** |
| γ7 | 0.4187 | 3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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