V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.05%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
47.28%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
50.95%
increased by 5.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2861 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 4.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7706 | 16.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0276 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.1098 | 0.27 |
| γ3 | -0.0991 | -0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.2737 | -1.26 |
| γ5 | 0.8089 | 4.39*** |
| γ6 | -0.8494 | -5.09*** |
| γ7 | 0.4170 | 3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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