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Ethereum to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

44.30%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

46.36%

increased by 1.18%

1 Month

49.52%

increased by 4.34%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

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graph of Ethereum to US Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Sep 26, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2875
5.49***
αARCH0.0870
4.08***
βGARCH0.7555
13.61***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.0281
-0.12
γ20.1223
0.33
γ3-0.1490
-0.58
γ4-0.1789
-0.85
γ50.7233
3.92***
γ6-0.8370
-4.66***
γ70.4487
3.19***

0.842

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2875
5.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0870
4.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7555
13.61***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.0281
-0.12
γ20.1223
0.33
γ3-0.1490
-0.58
γ4-0.1789
-0.85
γ50.7233
3.92***
γ6-0.8370
-4.66***
γ70.4487
3.19***

Persistence:

0.842

Half-life:

4 days