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Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

47.90%

decreased by 2.19%

1 Week

49.09%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

53.24%

increased by 3.15%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

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graph of Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Sep 26, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 3.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst26.0029
0.77
αARCH0.0563
7.23***
βGARCH0.9862
54.49***
νDF3.0008
4.27***

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

26.0029
0.77
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0563
7.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9862
54.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0008
4.27***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days