V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
47.90%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Week
49.09%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
53.24%
increased by 3.15%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 3.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 26.0029 | 0.77 |
| αARCH | 0.0563 | 7.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9862 | 54.49*** |
| νDF | 3.0008 | 4.27*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.0029 | 0.77 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0563 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9862 | 54.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0008 | 4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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