Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

46.44%

decreased by 2.55%

1 Week

47.47%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

51.13%

increased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/07/2024

to

11/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Nov 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 daysv = 3.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run28.8972
0.84
αscore0.0634
9.58***
βpersistence0.9905
92.20***
νDF3.3306
4.90***

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

28.8972
0.84
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0634
9.58***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9905
92.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3306
4.90***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days