V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
37.03%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
38.81%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
44.75%
increased by 6.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.3720 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0576 | 31.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9870 | 240.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0324 | 18.18*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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