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Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

49.31%

decreased by 1.80%

1 Week

50.47%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

54.47%

increased by 3.36%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

25.8351
3.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
27.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
208.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0388
15.86***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days