Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
51.88%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
52.93%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
56.60%
increased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 25.9039 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 26.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 202.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0383 | 15.50*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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