Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
48.84%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Week
49.96%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
53.88%
increased by 3.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 2.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 26.2235 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.0567 | 7.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9867 | 57.21*** |
| νDF | 2.9898 | 4.55*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.2235 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0567 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9867 | 57.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9898 | 4.55*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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