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Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

51.88%

decreased by 1.92%

1 Week

52.93%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

56.60%

increased by 2.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

25.9039
3.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0570
26.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9854
202.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0383
15.50***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days