Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
46.44%
1 Week
47.47%
1 Month
51.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Nov 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 28.8972 | 0.84 |
| αscore | 0.0634 | 9.58*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9905 | 92.20*** |
| νDF | 3.3306 | 4.90*** |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 28.8972 | 0.84 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0634 | 9.58*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 92.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3306 | 4.90*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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