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Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

48.84%

decreased by 1.59%

1 Week

49.96%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

53.88%

increased by 3.45%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/17/2024

to

10/17/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ethereum to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 2.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst26.2235
0.78
αARCH0.0567
7.59***
βGARCH0.9867
57.21***
νDF2.9898
4.55***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

26.2235
0.78
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0567
7.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9867
57.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9898
4.55***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days