V-Lab
United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
5.17%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.19%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.30%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 252 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~252 daysv = 7.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3115 | 1.89* |
| αARCH | 0.0331 | 11.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9972 | 691.57*** |
| νDF | 7.5703 | 2.02** |
0.997
Persistence252d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3115 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0331 | 11.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 691.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5703 | 2.02** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
252 days
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