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United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

5.17%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

5.19%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

5.30%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 252 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~252 daysv = 7.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3115
1.89*
αARCH0.0331
11.58***
βGARCH0.9972
691.57***
νDF7.5703
2.02**

0.997

Persistence

252d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3115
1.89*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0331
11.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9972
691.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5703
2.02**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

252 days