United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
4.78%
1 Week
4.81%
1 Month
4.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.3151 | 1.99** |
| αscore | 0.0336 | 11.39*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9973 | 729.01*** |
| νDF | 8.1471 | 1.79* |
0.997
Persistence255d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.3151 | 1.99** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0336 | 11.39*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 729.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1471 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
255 days
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