V-Lab
United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
5.24%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
5.27%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
5.37%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 257 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~257 daysv = 7.55 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3139 | 1.89* |
| αARCH | 0.0332 | 11.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9973 | 709.32*** |
| νDF | 7.5534 | 2.06** |
0.997
Persistence257d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3139 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0332 | 11.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 709.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5534 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
257 days
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