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United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

5.67%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

5.69%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

5.78%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~251 daysv = 7.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.3112
1.89*
αscore0.0330
11.57***
βpersistence0.9972
690.13***
νDF7.5819
2.01**

0.997

Persistence

251d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.3112
1.89*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0330
11.57***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9972
690.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5819
2.01**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

251 days