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United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

4.78%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

4.81%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.93%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~255 daysv = 8.15 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.3151
1.99**
αscore0.0336
11.39***
βpersistence0.9973
729.01***
νDF8.1471
1.79*

0.997

Persistence

255d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.3151
1.99**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0336
11.39***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9973
729.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1471
1.79*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

255 days