V-Lab
United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.82%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.85%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.97%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 265 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3222 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 44.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 3,031.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5748 | 8.08*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
265 days
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