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United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

5.24%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

5.27%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

5.37%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of United States Dollar Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 257 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~257 daysv = 7.55 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3139
1.89*
αARCH0.0332
11.66***
βGARCH0.9973
709.32***
νDF7.5534
2.06**

0.997

Persistence

257d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3139
1.89*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0332
11.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9973
709.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5534
2.06**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

257 days