Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

8.15%

increased by 1.20%

1 Week

12.04%

increased by 5.09%

1 Month

18.02%

increased by 11.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 8.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1331
0.00
αARCH0.6813
0.00
βGARCH0.9086
0.00
νDF7.9990
0.00

0.909

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1331
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6813
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9086
0.00
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9990
0.00

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days