V-Lab
US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7.12%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
11.48%
increased by 4.37%
1 Month
17.81%
increased by 10.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1294 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6812 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9086 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9990 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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