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US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.37%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

4.38%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.42%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~264 daysv = 4.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.1718
1.51
αscore0.0307
15.76***
βpersistence0.9974
634.47***
νDF4.5773
5.02***

0.997

Persistence

264d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.1718
1.51
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0307
15.76***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9974
634.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5773
5.02***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days