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Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

8.29%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

8.31%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

8.39%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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graph of Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 240 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~240 daysv = 2.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5156
1.19
αARCH0.0289
23.58***
βGARCH0.9971
415.81***
νDF2.6951
22.79***

0.997

Persistence

240d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5156
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0289
23.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
415.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6951
22.79***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

240 days