Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.88%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
6.90%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
6.97%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 327 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~327 daysv = 2.94 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4283 | 1.72* |
| αARCH | 0.0225 | 19.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9979 | 907.17*** |
| νDF | 2.9406 | 21.84*** |
0.998
Persistence327d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4283 | 1.72* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0225 | 19.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9979 | 907.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9406 | 21.84*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
327 days
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