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V-Lab

Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

6.20%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

6.22%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

6.31%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 330 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~330 daysv = 2.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4288
1.73*
αARCH0.0225
19.46***
βGARCH0.9979
923.13***
νDF2.9372
22.27***

0.998

Persistence

330d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4288
1.73*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0225
19.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9979
923.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9372
22.27***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

330 days