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Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

6.88%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

6.90%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

6.97%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 327 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~327 daysv = 2.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4283
1.72*
αARCH0.0225
19.42***
βGARCH0.9979
907.17***
νDF2.9406
21.84***

0.998

Persistence

327d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4283
1.72*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0225
19.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9979
907.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9406
21.84***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

327 days