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US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

6.73%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

6.73%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

6.75%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~264 daysv = 2.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2243
1.79*
αARCH0.0591
33.07***
βGARCH0.9974
744.87***
νDF2.7290
55.67***

0.997

Persistence

264d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2243
1.79*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
33.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9974
744.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7290
55.67***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days