US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
6.54%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
6.54%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
6.57%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 03:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 262 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2243 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0592 | 132.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 2,933.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7242 | 222.33*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
262 days
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