US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.72%
1 Week
4.74%
1 Month
4.80%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.2091 | 1.78* |
| αscore | 0.0800 | 30.23*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9971 | 660.34*** |
| νDF | 3.6223 | 22.02*** |
0.997
Persistence239d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.2091 | 1.78* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0800 | 30.23*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 660.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6223 | 22.02*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
239 days
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