V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.73%
1 Week
6.73%
1 Month
6.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2243 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0591 | 33.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9974 | 744.87*** |
| νDF | 2.7290 | 55.67*** |
0.997
Persistence264d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2243 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0591 | 33.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 744.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7290 | 55.67*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies