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US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

6.35%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

6.36%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

6.38%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 263 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~263 daysv = 2.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2211
1.78*
αARCH0.0590
33.03***
βGARCH0.9974
734.98***
νDF2.7362
54.71***

0.997

Persistence

263d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2211
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0590
33.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9974
734.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7362
54.71***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

263 days