V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
6.68%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
6.68%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
6.70%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 263 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2240 | 7.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0592 | 132.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 2,959.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7303 | 221.10*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
263 days
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