V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
6.95%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
6.95%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
6.97%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~264 daysv = 2.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2230 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0590 | 33.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9974 | 745.98*** |
| νDF | 2.7346 | 55.25*** |
0.997
Persistence264d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2230 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0590 | 33.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 745.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7346 | 55.25*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
Other US Dollar to Thai Baht Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies