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US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.72%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

4.74%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.80%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~239 daysv = 3.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.2091
1.78*
αscore0.0800
30.23***
βpersistence0.9971
660.34***
νDF3.6223
22.02***

0.997

Persistence

239d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.2091
1.78*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0800
30.23***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9971
660.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6223
22.02***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

239 days