V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.98%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
6.18%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
6.69%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0815 | 6.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8478 | 47.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0051 | 0.26 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0088 | 2.55** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9563 | 21.56*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0815 | 6.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8478 | 47.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0051 | 0.26 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0088 | 2.55** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9563 | 21.56*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies