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US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.60%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

4.95%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

5.29%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1014
4.92***
βGARCH0.6904
12.98***
γleverage-0.0381
-1.39
λ₁tau intercept0.0058
2.44**
λ₂forecast adj.0.5937
4.10***
λ₃tau persistence0.4040
2.73***

0.773

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1014
4.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6904
12.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0381
-1.39
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0058
2.44**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5937
4.10***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4040
2.73***

Persistence:

0.773

Half-life:

3 days