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US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

4.98%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

5.16%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

5.76%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0813
6.63***
βGARCH0.8478
47.86***
γleverage0.0050
0.26
λ₁tau intercept0.0088
2.56**
λ₂forecast adj.0.9553
21.52***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.932

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0813
6.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8478
47.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0050
0.26
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0088
2.56**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9553
21.52***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days