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V-Lab

US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

1.39%

decreased by 4.24%

1 Week

84,978,718,276,989.80%

increased by 84,978,718,276,984.17%

1 Month

14,634,412,868,304,626,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 14,634,412,868,304,626,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

116
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7407
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0093
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2869
18.79***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0864
12.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-