V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
4.98%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
5.16%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.76%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0813 | 6.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8478 | 47.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.0050 | 0.26 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0088 | 2.56** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9553 | 21.52*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8478 | 47.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0050 | 0.26 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0088 | 2.56** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9553 | 21.52*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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