US Dollar to Thai Baht MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.60%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
4.95%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
5.29%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1014 | 4.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6904 | 12.98*** |
| γleverage | -0.0381 | -1.39 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0058 | 2.44** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5937 | 4.10*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4040 | 2.73*** |
0.773
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 4.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6904 | 12.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0381 | -1.39 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 2.44** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5937 | 4.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4040 | 2.73*** |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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