V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.15%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
7.36%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
8.11%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6632 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.0964 | 11.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8988 | 121.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0030 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.0071 | 2.71*** |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6632 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0964 | 11.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8988 | 121.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0030 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.0071 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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