US Dollar to Thai Baht Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
5.97%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
6.13%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
6.70%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5814 | 1.96* |
| αARCH | 0.0969 | 11.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8969 | 117.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0031 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | -0.0021 | -0.20 |
| γ3 | 0.0144 | 2.49** |
| γ4 | -0.0149 | -4.00*** |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5814 | 1.96* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 11.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8969 | 117.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0031 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | -0.0021 | -0.20 |
| γ3 | 0.0144 | 2.49** |
| γ4 | -0.0149 | -4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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