V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
6.69%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
6.83%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
7.33%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5801 | 1.98** |
| αARCH | 0.0971 | 11.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8966 | 117.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | -0.0028 | -0.26 |
| γ3 | 0.0151 | 2.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.0154 | -4.10*** |
0.994
Persistence109d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5801 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 11.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8966 | 117.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | -0.0028 | -0.26 |
| γ3 | 0.0151 | 2.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.0154 | -4.10*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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