V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.48%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
18.63%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
18.99%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0393 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0514 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8715 | 29.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3063 | 2.17** |
| γ2 | -0.4358 | -2.33** |
| γ3 | 0.2287 | 2.03** |
| γ4 | -0.0891 | -0.47 |
| γ5 | -0.0648 | -0.27 |
| γ6 | 0.0520 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | 0.1165 | 0.95 |
| γ8 | -0.2021 | -2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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