V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
19.15%
increased by 1.33%
1 Week
19.32%
increased by 1.50%
1 Month
19.75%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0258 | 3.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.0507 | 3.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8708 | 28.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3011 | 2.19** |
| γ2 | -0.4306 | -2.37** |
| γ3 | 0.2332 | 2.36** |
| γ4 | -0.1014 | -0.63 |
| γ5 | -0.0539 | -0.25 |
| γ6 | 0.0546 | 0.30 |
| γ7 | 0.1056 | 0.88 |
| γ8 | -0.1970 | -2.75*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0258 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0507 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8708 | 28.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3011 | 2.19** |
| γ2 | -0.4306 | -2.37** |
| γ3 | 0.2332 | 2.36** |
| γ4 | -0.1014 | -0.63 |
| γ5 | -0.0539 | -0.25 |
| γ6 | 0.0546 | 0.30 |
| γ7 | 0.1056 | 0.88 |
| γ8 | -0.1970 | -2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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