V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
18.26%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
18.53%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
19.18%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0346 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0510 | 3.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8714 | 29.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3043 | 2.18** |
| γ2 | -0.4340 | -2.35** |
| γ3 | 0.2306 | 2.16** |
| γ4 | -0.0938 | -0.53 |
| γ5 | -0.0607 | -0.26 |
| γ6 | 0.0529 | 0.28 |
| γ7 | 0.1130 | 0.92 |
| γ8 | -0.2013 | -2.78*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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