V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
20.09%
increased by 0.53%
1 Week
20.08%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
20.06%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0405 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0512 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8711 | 29.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3067 | 2.19** |
| γ2 | -0.4368 | -2.35** |
| γ3 | 0.2306 | 2.12** |
| γ4 | -0.0925 | -0.51 |
| γ5 | -0.0620 | -0.26 |
| γ6 | 0.0524 | 0.28 |
| γ7 | 0.1147 | 0.94 |
| γ8 | -0.2023 | -2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
Other US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies