V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.44%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
14.32%
increased by 1.87%
1 Month
15.09%
increased by 2.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 7.98 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9319 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.3615 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.4736 | 0.00 |
| νDF | 7.9756 | 0.00 |
0.474
Persistence1d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9319 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3615 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4736 | 0.00 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9756 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.474
Half-life:
1 days
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