Skip to main content
V-Lab

US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

45.43%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Week

45.31%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

44.86%

decreased by 1.82%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.6066
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0209
52.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9955
1,533.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1323
307.42***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

153 days