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US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

37.48%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

37.41%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Month

37.15%

decreased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~156 daysv = 2.15 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.2708
1.49
αARCH0.0205
13.15***
βGARCH0.9956
384.39***
νDF2.1471
70.15***

0.996

Persistence

156d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2708
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0205
13.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9956
384.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1471
70.15***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

156 days