V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.43%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
45.31%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
44.86%
decreased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6066 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 52.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,533.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1323 | 307.42*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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