US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
37.48%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
37.41%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Month
37.15%
decreased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~156 daysv = 2.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2708 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.0205 | 13.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9956 | 384.39*** |
| νDF | 2.1471 | 70.15*** |
0.996
Persistence156d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2708 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0205 | 13.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 384.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1471 | 70.15*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
156 days
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