V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
42.11%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
42.02%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
41.65%
decreased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5041 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0208 | 52.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,519.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1362 | 297.40*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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