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V-Lab

US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.23%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

15.97%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

15.20%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0371
12.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0656
23.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8817
273.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0867
1.65*

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days