US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.23%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
15.97%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
15.20%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0371 | 12.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0656 | 23.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8817 | 273.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0867 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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