US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
13.42%
1 Week
13.39%
1 Month
13.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. The volatility power δ = 2.27 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0158 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.0343 | 2.13** |
| βGARCH | 0.9345 | 65.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.1933 | 1.72* |
| δpower | 2.2666 | 3.98*** |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0158 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0343 | 2.13** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9345 | 65.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1933 | 1.72* |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2666 | 3.98*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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