V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
0.27%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
0.30%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
0.38%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. The volatility power δ = 1.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1718 | 20.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8282 | 107.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0286 | 1.18 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7707 | 29.47*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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