V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
0.30%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
0.32%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
0.40%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. The volatility power δ = 1.78 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1717 | 20.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8283 | 107.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0284 | 1.18 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7772 | 29.46*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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