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V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

0.27%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.30%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

0.38%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. The volatility power δ = 1.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0001
4.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1718
20.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8282
107.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0286
1.18
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7707
29.47***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days