US Dollar to South African Rand APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.51%
1 Week
13.54%
1 Month
13.65%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 844316 trading days (~3350.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 13.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 33.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9387 | 466.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1457 | -13.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0644 | 29.45*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
844316 days
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