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V-Lab

US Dollar to South African Rand APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.51%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

13.54%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

13.65%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to South African Rand APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 844316 trading days (~3350.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0016
13.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0585
33.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9387
466.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1457
-13.05***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0644
29.45***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

844316 days