V-Lab
South African Rand APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
8.79%
1 Week
8.84%
1 Month
9.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1149052 trading days (~4559.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9388 | 116.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1468 | -3.25*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0395 | 7.37*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1149052 days
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