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V-Lab

South African Rand APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

8.79%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

8.84%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

9.03%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South African Rand APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1149052 trading days (~4559.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0016
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0589
8.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9388
116.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1468
-3.25***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0395
7.37***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1149052 days