Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

South African Rand GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

9.32%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

9.35%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

9.49%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South African Rand GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 355 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~355 daysv = 2.82 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0280
1.79*
αARCH0.0378
26.65***
βGARCH0.9981
1,038.55***
νDF2.8180
42.92***

0.998

Persistence

355d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0280
1.79*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0378
26.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9981
1,038.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8180
42.92***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

355 days