V-Lab
South African Rand GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
9.32%
1 Week
9.35%
1 Month
9.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 355 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0280 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0378 | 26.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9981 | 1,038.55*** |
| νDF | 2.8180 | 42.92*** |
0.998
Persistence355d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0280 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0378 | 26.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 1,038.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8180 | 42.92*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
355 days
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