US Dollar to South African Rand GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
30.11%
increased by 3.80%
1 Week
38.14%
increased by 11.83%
1 Month
41.69%
increased by 15.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 03:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.05 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.2677 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2451 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5300 | 0.02 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0492 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.530
Half-life:
1 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies