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US Dollar to Euro GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

5.73%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

5.75%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

5.82%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Euro GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5708
8.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
71.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7712
155.44***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days