US Dollar to Euro GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.73%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
5.75%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
5.82%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5708 | 8.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 71.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7712 | 155.44*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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