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US Dollar to Euro GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.81%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

4.82%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.89%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Euro GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 661 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~661 daysv = 4.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.4230
1.75*
αscore0.0259
15.33***
βpersistence0.9990
2,162.23***
νDF4.4171
8.19***

0.999

Persistence

661d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.4230
1.75*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0259
15.33***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,162.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4171
8.19***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

661 days