V-Lab
US Dollar to Euro MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.07%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.16%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.27%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 1.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0002 | 0.03 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0044 | 0.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1434 | 0.22 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8382 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.068
Half-life:
0 days
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