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V-Lab

US Dollar to Euro MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.07%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

4.16%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.27%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Euro MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0677
1.13
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0002
0.03
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0044
0.14
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1434
0.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8382
1.13

Persistence:

0.068

Half-life:

0 days