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V-Lab

Israeli Shekel MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

7.40%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

7.52%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

7.82%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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graph of Israeli Shekel MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 71% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 71% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0880
6.13***
βGARCH0.8674
45.29***
γleverage-0.0366
-2.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0002
0.64
λ₂forecast adj.0.0062
0.91
λ₃tau persistence0.9929
120.95***

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
6.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8674
45.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0366
-2.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
0.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0062
0.91
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9929
120.95***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days