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V-Lab

Israeli Shekel MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

0.74%

decreased by 14.34%

1 Week

8,926,962,842,983,048,000.00%

increased by 8,926,962,842,983,048,000.00%

1 Month

2,270,252,849,354,009,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 2,270,252,849,354,009,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Israeli Shekel MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0024
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0048
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9903

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-