V-Lab
Israeli Shekel MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
8.61%
1 Week
8.58%
1 Month
8.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 72% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0884 | 6.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8672 | 45.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0370 | -2.67*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0002 | 0.64 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0062 | 0.91 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9929 | 121.34*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 6.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8672 | 45.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0370 | -2.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0002 | 0.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0062 | 0.91 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9929 | 121.34*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
Other Israeli Shekel Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies