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Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

18.47%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

18.22%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

17.33%

decreased by 1.78%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0636
3.69***
βGARCH0.9212
81.37***
γleverage-0.0260
-1.13
λ₁tau intercept0.0010
0.17
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9986
61.00***

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9212
81.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0260
-1.13
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0010
0.17
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9986
61.00***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days