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V-Lab

Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

-0.00%

decreased by 7.42%

1 Week

8.09%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

21.35%

increased by 13.93%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1225
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2450
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5100
650.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.07

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-