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V-Lab

Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.38%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

13.37%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

13.32%

decreased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0639
3.56***
βGARCH0.9222
65.82***
γleverage-0.0279
-1.26
λ₁tau intercept0.6851
1.09
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0639
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9222
65.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0279
-1.26
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6851
1.09
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days