V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
14.97%
increased by 1.06%
1 Week
14.88%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
14.55%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0645 | 3.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9211 | 64.73*** |
| γleverage | -0.0284 | -1.27 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6816 | 1.13 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 3.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9211 | 64.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0284 | -1.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6816 | 1.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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