V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
41.13%
1 Week
41.03%
1 Month
40.68%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4219 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0206 | 13.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9955 | 368.69*** |
| νDF | 2.1390 | 71.99*** |
0.995
Persistence152d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4219 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0206 | 13.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 368.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1390 | 71.99*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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