V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
46.26%
increased by 0.86%
1 Week
46.14%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
45.67%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6010 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 52.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,526.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1324 | 306.25*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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