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Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

46.26%

increased by 0.86%

1 Week

46.14%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

45.67%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.6010
5.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0209
52.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9955
1,526.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1324
306.25***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

152 days