V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
42.09%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
42.00%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
41.62%
decreased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4994 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0208 | 52.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,512.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1364 | 296.35*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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