Gold Troy Ounce GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
39.25%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
39.17%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Month
38.87%
decreased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~161 daysv = 2.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2755 | 1.53 |
| αARCH | 0.0204 | 13.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9957 | 411.62*** |
| νDF | 2.1484 | 72.94*** |
0.996
Persistence161d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2755 | 1.53 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0204 | 13.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 411.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1484 | 72.94*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
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