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V-Lab

Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.48%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

16.36%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

15.92%

decreased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 104% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0174
6.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
6.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9336
240.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0290
-2.43**

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days