V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
18.60%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
18.40%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
17.73%
decreased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0165 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.0560 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.9359 | 60.51*** |
| γleverage | -0.0289 | -0.62 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0165 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0560 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9359 | 60.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0289 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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