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V-Lab

Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.65%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

16.51%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

16.04%

decreased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 102% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0177
6.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0575
6.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9325
238.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0290
-2.40**

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days