V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.65%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
16.51%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
16.04%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 102% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0177 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0575 | 6.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 238.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0290 | -2.40** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
Other Gold Troy Ounce Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies