V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.48%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
16.36%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
15.92%
decreased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 104% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0174 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0569 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9336 | 240.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0290 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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