Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
13.73%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
13.73%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
13.70%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0162 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.9370 | 60.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.0284 | -0.62 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0162 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9370 | 60.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0284 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
Other Gold Troy Ounce Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies