V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.24%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
15.17%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
14.92%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0168 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0559 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.9355 | 60.38*** |
| γleverage | -0.0288 | -0.62 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9355 | 60.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0288 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other Gold Troy Ounce Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies