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V-Lab

Chinese Renminbi GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.43%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

1.43%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

1.44%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinese Renminbi GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 29, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
6.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0372
16.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9663
747.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0070
-1.92*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-