Skip to main content
V-Lab

Russian Ruble GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.06%

increased by 0.91%

1 Week

15.10%

increased by 0.95%

1 Month

15.26%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russian Ruble GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 65% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0023
16.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0923
21.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9259
466.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0364
-6.55***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days