V-Lab
Russian Ruble GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
8.86%
1 Week
8.93%
1 Month
9.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0023 | 4.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9257 | 116.52*** |
| γleverage | -0.0363 | -1.63 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0023 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9257 | 116.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0363 | -1.63 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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