V-Lab
Russian Ruble GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.06%
1 Week
15.10%
1 Month
15.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 65% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0023 | 16.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 21.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9259 | 466.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0364 | -6.55*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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