V-Lab
Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4.25%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.27%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
4.35%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 22.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0671 | 23.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9199 | 525.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0013 | -0.27 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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