Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3.43%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
3.48%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
3.65%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0013 | 5.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0663 | 5.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9205 | 132.30*** |
| γleverage | -0.0009 | -0.05 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 5.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9205 | 132.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0009 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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