V-Lab
Philippine Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.57%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
3.62%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.78%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0013 | 5.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0662 | 10.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9202 | 131.72*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0662 | 10.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9202 | 131.72*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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