US Dollar to Brazilian Real GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.00%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
19.97%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
19.85%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0067 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.0830 | 8.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9112 | 117.05*** |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0067 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0830 | 8.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9112 | 117.05*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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