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V-Lab

US Dollar to Brazilian Real GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

20.00%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

19.97%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

19.85%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0067
1.35
αARCH0.0830
8.09***
βGARCH0.9112
117.05***

0.994

Persistence

120d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0067
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0830
8.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9112
117.05***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

120 days