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V-Lab

Argentine Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.10%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

5.15%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

5.35%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Argentine Peso GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2002 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
15.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1143
28.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8857
287.39***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-