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Argentine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

5.39%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

5.43%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

5.59%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Argentine Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0009
2.57**
αARCH0.1426
5.85***
βGARCH0.8880
83.98***
γleverage-0.0611
-1.66*

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
2.57**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1426
5.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8880
83.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0611
-1.66*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days