V-Lab
Argentine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
5.39%
1 Week
5.43%
1 Month
5.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 2.57** |
| αARCH | 0.1426 | 5.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8880 | 83.98*** |
| γleverage | -0.0611 | -1.66* |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1426 | 5.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8880 | 83.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0611 | -1.66* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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